History, as has often been noted, is a good teacher, while humans, are poor learners. It is an unfortunate pairing really, for the broad perspectives and deep immersion required to be a good pupil are usually lost on folks after a generation or two. What is learnt and understood in the moment is diluted across time, so that important lessons just do not sink in.

Few could have predicted the First World War - certainly not its timing - and fewer still could have foreseen its awful consequences. Who would have thought that the assassination of an Austrian Royal would have unleashed the pent-up forces and craven ambitions that would topple a whole continent into murderous conflict?

Today we face a similar though not identical situation. The tinder is dry for two potential conflagrations - over Taiwan in Asia and the Ukraine in Europe. The latter is particularly galling, for who cannot fail to see the outworking of hubris that emerged after the Cold War, or the manner in which Russia has found itself surrounded by NATO countries on its borders.

I remember at the time thinking how stupid it was to expand NATO, rather then disband it, and a create a new inclusive security system in Europe. What could possibly go wrong with building an alliance up to the very border of a former adversary?

The West is both complacent and foolish. Putin is not a good guy, but that is no reason why democracies should behave as if their skulls are empty. Time now for a comprehensive peace in Europe, or else.