Thursday, June 19, 2025

The situation in the Middle East is often fraught, but it is especially so just now. There is, without a doubt, a reasonable chance that things will go in a different direction to the one Israel and the US hope for. War planning does not always account for the many variables that could lead to either failure, or something much worse. It may claim to, but the outcome of previous blunders are there for all to see.

Iran and Russia have a strategic understanding. Neither country has many friends or allies to call upon, so one should not underestimate the potential for a wider conflict. Russia does not want to lose Iran to the West and the Iranian leadership does not want to lose power. The Trump Administration should tread warily when considering how far it should involve itself in the conflict.

This morning, Trump said he would make a decision, one way or the other, at a second's notice. I cannot recall any previous US Presidents of the past 100 years acting within such a short time frame, so it seems a trifle impetuous. Or maybe it all just Trumpish words, so much hot air!

Sure, the government of Iran is pretty awful, and whatever stern version of Islam it is following has little popularity at home. But there may be worse actors waiting in the wings. It is hard not to see the period from 1914 to the present in apocalyptic terms. But best not to.

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