Australia goes to the polls on August 21st in what is likely to be a tough-fought, possibly not-entirely-clean campaign. The Government under new PM Julia Gillard is marginally ahead in the polls, though the ALP's primary vote if down. The opposition have a formidable scrapper in Tony Abbott, though whether middle-class Australia will wear his morally conservative credentials and tendency to say silly things is another matter. It has to be said though, that he is very competitive and articulate on key issues, even if one disagrees with his positions.
What matters then will the election hinge on? In recent months, the Government's handling of the mining tax, the home insulation scheme, climate policy, boat people (!) and the manner in which the former PM was deposed have proved to be stumbling blocks. The opposition will hit hard on these issues. The Government, which, on the whole, has been competent and broadly social democratic, should prevail if it can run a half-decent campaign. This should mean jettisoning spin doctors and focus-group pollsters, whose baleful influence is too often apparent in Western democracies. There is nothing wrong with leading from the front or even having a little conviction, is there?
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