Tuesday, September 29, 2020

It seems to me that we are in a bit of lull at the moment. The dreaded Covid has been temporarily tamed and in most Australian states, things are returning to a kind of normal. We cannot be certain, however, that it won't return with equal force.

Meanwhile, the world economy has tanked and getting out of that hole will preoccupy political leaders of all stripes for the next half dozen years. The dark spirit that is Climate Change remains, as always, a looming presence. There is a hot contradiction between these two entities. If we stoke up the same old economy as before, then the climate will get worse, faster. On the other hand, if we decide that climate mitigation should come first, then a slower economic revival will likely ensue.

It is really a matter of short term thinking. Political leaders respond to their national audiences and promise improved standards of living and economic growth. It is hard to square such promises with doing the hard stuff around climate action, which would probably dip GDP for some time to come. The short term is likely to win then.

So this is the lull. We have choices, but where will we jump?

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