The Russian invasion of the Ukraine continues apace with little end in sight. The latter, with assistance of the former's surprising military incompetence, together with a huge cache of weapons from the West, have thus far repulsed the attackers. But methinks time is on the side of the Russians, who can put vastly more men in the field and also produce a lot of planes, tanks, ammunition and the like. Putin is counting on the West becoming fatigued.

My fear is the same as that held by a number of political commentators in late 1913 going into 1914. Things could go horribly wrong very quickly, in spite of what seems like a calm now. The insertion of Western tanks into the battle gives the defenders a greater opportunity for a military advance. It strikes me that the people of the Ukraine are angry enough (and who can blame them) to want to carry the war into Russian territory. All bets are then off.

It would pay Western leaders to prepare for such an event, to be ready to defuse the situation by whatever means and push for a negotiated settlement. To carry on blindly or complacently is only begging for a Sarajevo moment to occur and with it, a disaster for all humanity.