When I first went to Europe in 1979 I met up in Dijon with a Canadian man called Ted. It was one of those chance encounters at a Youth Hostel, which started with a shared meal and ended with a couple of weeks of traveling together. Amongst the many things we talked about was American politics, for in such arcane matters were we both schooled. At that time the Carter Presidency was ending and Mr Reagan was in the ascendancy, whilst across the Atlantic(or The Channel, from our perspective), Mrs Thatcher was delivering a Franciscan homily before her onslaught against the welfare state. Heady days!

My point, which has been entirely lost in this verbiage, was that Ted was impressed that I knew anything about US politics at all. I am not sure how many Australians he had met, but he was adamant that I knew a great deal more than all the Americans he had encountered. Not exactly a high bar, but I took the compliment anyway.

Which brings me to Donald Trump. The Republican challenger has surprised many by his stubborn continuance at the top of all the polls. By any calculus he should have peaked and been on his way out by now. He is rude, ignorant, narcissistic and lacking the temperament required of a President. His bombast and offensiveness would, under normal circumstances, have been punished by voters. But on the other hand, his finger to the establishment (of which he is a member) is hitting a sweet spot with people disaffected by politics and the complexity of the world. Straight-talking and simple solutions have an appeal to people tired of hearing how difficult the world is. Trump, or the iteration of him that we are seeing in this campaign, is a cynical opportunist who uses bigotry as a tool to gain and hold attention.

I will be surprised, though not shocked, if Trump gets to the first primary in early 2016. Defying the political gravity is something that he does rather well. For now.